Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

Economy

Historian with streak of accurate election forecasts since 1984 falls short after 2024 Trump victory

Historian Allan Lichtman, who predicted nearly every election since 1984, was proved to have the wrong projection this cycle after President-elect Trump sailed to victory on Election Day.  

The Fox News Decision Desk projected Trump would win the presidency in the early hours of Wednesday, after Wisconsin’s call for the former president officially brought him above the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to secure a win.

Lichtman, an election forecaster who had previously correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about presidential elections. He predicted, after the Democratic National Convention, that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the White House this cycle – but election night results show his prediction was wrong.

Lichtman’s ‘Keys to the White House’ consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on election night. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if ‘true’ they are given a ‘key,’ and if ‘false,’ their competitor receives the point.

The ‘keys’ are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

According to Lichtman’s prediction, Harris held nine of the 13 keys before Election Day. These included no primary contest, no third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, foreign/military success, and no challenger charisma.

Trump, however, defeated Harris when he secured 277 electoral votes – and counting.

‘The keys show that Kamala Harris is a predicted winner,’ Lichtman told Fox News Digital ahead of the election.

After Trump was projected to be the 47th president, Lichtman said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that he was ‘assessing last night’s results.’

In a statement shared with Fox News Digital, Lichtman said he will soon be addressing the results.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Enter Your Information Below To Receive Free Trading Ideas, Latest News And Articles.







    Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

    You May Also Like

    Stock

    Union members at Ford, Stellantis and General Motors have ratified a new 4½-year contract, locking in at 11% pay increases secured after a six-week...

    Investing

    ASX-listed Antilles Gold (ASX:AAU, OTCQB:ANTMF) is an Australian mining company focused on gold and copper projects in Cuba through joint ventures with the Cuban...

    Latest News

    A man accused of murdering his girlfriend in Boston before fleeing to Kenya has been re-arrested following his escape from a police station in...

    Latest News

    Slovakian police have charged a man in connection with the attempted assassination of Prime Minister Robert Fico, the country’s interior minister said Thursday. Fico...

    Disclaimer: Nationalfinancialnews.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.


    Copyright © 2024 nationalfinancialnews.com